Discussion about this post

User's avatar
George Batchelor's avatar

Really nicely written and researched piece. I wasn’t that surprised that you didn’t find anything that had run out. This is exactly the economics of scarcity. Once something starts to run out, its price goes up so it’s consumed less and the value of finding other less easy to access supplies becomes more worth while.

Expand full comment
CESAR ALFREDO BARBERO's avatar

Maybe you should have read Julian Simon`s books: ultimate resource 1 and 2. He clearly told that in a market economy there is no way you could exhaust 100 % of the good, because the price will increase and a new, maybe more expensive than the old one, will be found. Funniliy enough, then the price could go down. J. Simon bet against P. Ehrlich (the crazy "ecologist") that ten resources chosen by Ehrlich will decrease in prize. And He won the bet.

It happens to oil in the 2010`s, it happened with lithium in the last five years. Also show the folly of charging monopoly prices for something (like China is trying to do with rare earths), you will lose the monopoly and the markets.

Expand full comment
29 more comments...

No posts